CREDIT–RISK ASSESSMENT USING SUPPORT VECTORS MACHINE AND MULTILAYER NEURAL NETWORK MODELS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY CASE OF A TUNISIAN BANK
Vol. 11, Nr. 4/2012 , p587..620
Author(s):
Adel KARAA Aida KRICHENE
Keywords:
Banking sector, Accounting data, Credit risk assessment, Default risk Prediction, Neural network, SVM, classification, training
Abstract:
Credit risk evaluation or
loan default risk evaluation is important to financial institutions which
provide loans to businesses and individuals. Credit and loans have risk of
being defaulted. To understand risk levels of credit users (corporations and individuals),
credit providers (bankers) normally collect vast amount of information on
borrowers. Statistical predictive analytic techniques can be used to analyze or
to determine risk levels involved in loans. This study contributes to the
credit risk evaluation literature in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We make a
comparative analysis of two different statistical methods of classification
(artificial neural network and Support Vector Machine). We use a multilayer
neural network model and SVM methodology to predict if a particular applicant
can be classified as solvent or bankrupt. We use a database of 1435 files of credits
granted to industrial Tunisian companies by a Tunisian commercial bank in 2002,
2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. The results show that the best prediction model is
the multilayer neural network model and the best information set is the one
combining accrual, cash-flow and collateral variables. The results show that
Multilayers Neural Network models outperform the SVM models in terms of global
good classification rates and of reduction of Error type I. In fact, the good
classification rates are respectively 90.2% (NNM) and 70.13% (SVM) for the
in-sample set and the error type I is of the order of 18.55% (NNM) and 29.91%
(SVM).
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